CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2022-05-25T18:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2022-05-25T18:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20339/-1
CME Note: Visible in the SW in STEREO A COR2 and in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Moves quickly through C2 FOV. Associated with eruption in vicinity of AR 13016 (S18W42), visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 beginning 2022-05-25T18:01Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-05-28T05:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/20353/1 Model Inputs: 2022-05-25T18:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=39.0, Lat.=-21.0, Speed=951.0, HalfAngle=42.0, Time21.5=2022-05-25T21:58Z This simulation was ran with the higher CME width which was based on including fainter part of the front (possibly shock). Our other simulation ran with the more narrow focus on only the bright more southern part of the front does not show a glancing blow to earth. Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-05-28T05:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=3 (kp)180=4 Other Location(s) Impact: Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-05-29T08:57Z OSIRIS-REx with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-05-28T16:37Z STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-05-27T21:24Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220525_215800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220525_215800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220525_215800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220525_215800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220525_215800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220525_215800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220525_215800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220525_215800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220525_215800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220525_215800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220525_215800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220525_215800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220525_215800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220525_215800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220525_215800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220525_215800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 16.85 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2022-05-27T12:09Z
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